Posts

Publications

Peer Reviewed Introducing the Commons Synthesis Project: Topics and trends in the study of common-pool resource. International Journal of the Commons (Forthcoming), Joshua E. Lambert, Graham Epstein, Jennifer Joel, and Jacopo Baggio. Reassessing Private Military and Security Company (PMSC) ‘Competition’ in Civil War: Lessons from Sierra Leone. Small Wars & Insurgencies (2019) - Issue 3, Christopher Faulkner, Joshua E. Lambert, and Jonathan Powell. Dissertation Food, Familiarity, and Forecasting: Modeling Coups with Computational Methods.

April 15, 2021 Read

Talks

2021 American Political Science Association (Seattle, OR) Religious Pluralism and Mass Violence: A Global Analysis, with Gunes Tezcur International Studies Association Annual Meeting (Virtual) Militarized Fisheries Conflicts Associated with Global Climate, with Cullen Hendrix, Sarah M. Glaser, and Paige Roberts Centre College Guest Lecture (IST 210 - Research Design) Overview of GIS in Empirical Social Science UCF School of Politics, Security and International Affairs Colloquium The Commons Synthesis Project: Applying machine learning to synthesize knowledge on community-based natural resource management, with Graham Epstein, Jacopo Baggio, and Jennifer Joel 2020 International Studies Association Annual Meeting (Honolulu, HA) - Cancelled due to Covid Climate Past, Climate Present, and the Future of Fisheries Conflict, with Cullen Hendrix, Sarah M.

April 15, 2021 Read

Cypress Synergy, LLC

Joshua E. Lambert is the founder of Cypress Synergy, LLC. Cypress Synergy provides a wide range of services tailored specifically to the client. Joshua leverages his professional and educational experience to fit the problem set with the appropriate service. To set up an initial consultation email here. Toolkit: Problem identification and research design Data operationalization Statistical analysis Geographical information systems Advanced data visualization Machine Learning applications and forecasting Natural language processing Web scraping Canine behavioral mentorship Communication: Written reports Web applications Oral presentations Public lectures Private briefings Areas of expertise: Methodological applications Civil-military relations Contagion (social phenomena) Conflict processes Political behavior and psychology Canine behavior

April 14, 2021 Read

Canine Behavior

Cypress Synergy also provides solutions and mentorship regarding canine behavior. The services available are listed below. As a free resource for dog handlers we provide the following working document: A Working Resource for Life with Dogs If you feel inclined to contribute to this document’s progress please contribute Here. Services In-person mentorship for handler and canine Online consulting (including tailored video feedback) Extended puppy socialization and obedience training (3-4 week boarding in addition to handler mentorship)

January 1, 2021 Read

Core Approach

The fundamental approach behind Cypress Synergy is to address each problem with an open mind set. Each case is different and rather than bringing in all the answers from experience, Cypress Synergy tries to incorporate new data with each iteration. In many ways the company itself functions as a learning algorithm would, getting better as it goes. With that said, where Cypress Synergy sets itself apart is the broad range of tools it has to meet the customer’s particular needs.

January 1, 2021 Read

Back Coup d'Future: An Ensemble Machine Learning Framework for Coups Prediction

The quantitative study of coups has benefited from immense explanatory research, but less so with regard to prediction. I present a systematic framework for modeling coups utilizing a machine learning ensemble approach. Forecasts are assessed at the country level with yearly temporal resolutions. I outline a methodology that covers feature identification, processing and selection, model development and deployment, and finally metrics for assessing the predictive capacity. Forecasts indicate that in 2020 the five most likely countries for a military coup include Thailand, Tunisia, Somalia, Burundi and Ethiopia.

August 8, 2020 Read

Coups and Innovation Diffusion

Theoretically this paper makes an important contribution to the coup contagion scholarship by conceptualizing a more plausible pathway. Whereas existing studies have focused on the temporally imminent coup outcome, I argue that putsch diffusion should focus on vulnerability. Coups exhibit diffusive characteristics through the combination of immediate shocks and historical legacy, of coups in a given neighborhood. Existing innovation diffusion literature has illustrated how spread can be mitigated or exacerbated due to characteristics of the innovation, actors involved, and environment.

August 8, 2020 Read

Them Belly Full but We Hungry

Testing Hunger is a ubiquitous force in the annals of political instability. It is a feeling that can lead collectives toward huge social change. Momentous ends to French (1789) and Russian (1917) monarchies were ignited by starvation. Revolutionary change is an easily identifiable form of political instability, but in the modern state system it is very rare. Of the 317 irregular leader changes identified by Archigos dataset, over 200 of those events were coups.

August 8, 2020 Read

Food, Familiarity, and Forecasting: Modeling Coups with Computational Methods

The final dissertation is openly available through UCF. In an effort to condense the research to a more approachable format, I have put together a few pages that reflect some of the key arguments and findings. Abstract Military coups are the most consequential breakdown of civil-military relations. This dissertation contributes to the explanation and prediction of coups through three independent quantitative analyses. First, I argue that food insecurity is an important determinant of coups.

June 8, 2020 Read

Introduction

I serve as a Postdoctoral Fellow and NLP/Machine Learning Researcher for The University of Central Florida’s National Center for Integrated Coastal Research and School of Politics, Security, and International Affairs. I hold a Ph.D. in Security Studies from the University of Central Florida (UCF). Currently my research is focused on quantifying adaptive pathways for coastal systems utilizing advanced computational methods. My dissertation uses spatial and environmental determinants to better predict global coups d’etat.

June 8, 2020 Read

A changing State of the Union

The State of the Union is an important public moment for every president since Woodrow Wilson set the precedent in 1913. These speeches generate millions of views and are often laundry lists of policy preferences and achievements. Presidents are well aware of the public nature of these speeches and the preparation makes them primed for comparison across offices. The use of at-a-distance psychological trait analysis creates an opportunity to assess some general SOTU trends.

February 5, 2020 Read