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Back Coup d'Future: An Ensemble Machine Learning Framework for Coups Prediction

The quantitative study of coups has benefited from immense explanatory research, but less so with regard to prediction. I present a systematic framework for modeling coups utilizing a machine learning ensemble approach. Forecasts are assessed at the country level with yearly temporal resolutions. I outline a methodology that covers feature identification, processing and selection, model development and deployment, and finally metrics for assessing the predictive capacity. Forecasts indicate that in 2020 the five most likely countries for a military coup include Thailand, Tunisia, Somalia, Burundi and Ethiopia.

August 8, 2020 Read
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Coups and Innovation Diffusion

Theoretically this paper makes an important contribution to the coup contagion scholarship by conceptualizing a more plausible pathway. Whereas existing studies have focused on the temporally imminent coup outcome, I argue that putsch diffusion should focus on vulnerability. Coups exhibit diffusive characteristics through the combination of immediate shocks and historical legacy, of coups in a given neighborhood. Existing innovation diffusion literature has illustrated how spread can be mitigated or exacerbated due to characteristics of the innovation, actors involved, and environment.

August 8, 2020 Read
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Them Belly Full but We Hungry

Testing Hunger is a ubiquitous force in the annals of political instability. It is a feeling that can lead collectives toward huge social change. Momentous ends to French (1789) and Russian (1917) monarchies were ignited by starvation. Revolutionary change is an easily identifiable form of political instability, but in the modern state system it is very rare. Of the 317 irregular leader changes identified by Archigos dataset, over 200 of those events were coups.

August 8, 2020 Read
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Food, Familiarity, and Forecasting: Modeling Coups with Computational Methods

The final dissertation is openly available through UCF. In an effort to condense the research to a more approachable format, I have put together a few pages that reflect some of the key arguments and findings. Abstract Military coups are the most consequential breakdown of civil-military relations. This dissertation contributes to the explanation and prediction of coups through three independent quantitative analyses. First, I argue that food insecurity is an important determinant of coups.

June 8, 2020 Read